The five-time champions have won just two of their opening five qualifiers ahead of Tuesday's clash with the defending champions at the Maracana
Outside of tournaments, Brazil don't play many big games. This is not a team that is familiar with the concept of desperation or having their fixture branded as 'must-win'. Things aren't supposed to get this intense, or this nervous, until the knockout stages of a World Cup or Copa America. But here we are, in mid-November, in a qualifying campaign for a World Cup that is just under three years away, and the Selecao are sweating.
CONMEBOL qualifying is widely regarded as the most competitive, even if the world rankings don't always bear that out. A three-year gauntlet with each team playing 18 matches, and at the end of it just four automatic spaces at the tournament. Things have changed ahead of 2026, though, with the expanded 48-team tournament now allowing for six South American sides to qualify, with a seventh heading to an intercontinental play-off.
Despite that, Brazil find themselves in a precarious position as the opening third of the campaign heads towards its close. Having won just two of their opening five games, they currently sit fifth in the standings ahead of Tuesday's crunch clash with old rivals Argentina. Defeat and results going a certain way elsewhere could see them end the international break out of the automatic qualification slots.
That would not be becoming of a Brazil squad that is full of stars from the European games, as well as a number of youngsters who will join that cohort in the not-too-distant future. And unlike recent Selecao sides, there are very few obvious holes in the starting XI.
It's hard to highlight where, exactly, things have gone so wrong for a team who are expected to win every single World Cup by their own fans, regardless of their own strengths or those of their opponents. Qualification isn't a prerequisite as much of an assumption. These games should effectively be a handful of friendlies to gear up for the real thing. So how have they got to this stage?
GettyIt starts in the dugout
Tite was always going to step down following the 2022 World Cup. The Brazil manager announced in February of that year that the tournament in Qatar would be his last act in charge of the Selecao. It was hardly a memorable send-off, though.
Brazil never really convinced, narrowly winning two of their group games, before losing a dead-rubber third to Cameroon. And although they made quick work of South Korea in the last 16, they couldn't feel hard done by in their quarter-final exit to Croatia — even though it took penalties to secure the loss.
Tite left his post immediately, as promised, leaving the national team without a permanent head coach. Under-20s boss Ramon Menezes took over on an interim basis, but after losing to Senegal on neutral ground, he was relieved of his duties. A subsequent poll of the Brazilian public revealed that most in the country wanted Real Madrid manager Carlo Ancelotti to take the job. Instead, they hired Fernando Diniz, also on an interim basis, a manager who had bounced around Brazilian football, and never managed a side for more than two years. This was hardly a convincing appointment.
And so it has proved. Diniz has won two of his five matches in charge, while also juggling his day job with Fluminense, with whom he has admittedly won the Copa Libertadores. Diniz, a tough disciplinarian who believes in positional tiki-taka, always seemed an awkward fit. The result has been a side that has only scored eight goals in five games, despite being blessed with some of the world's best attacking talent.
Experience could be on the way. Football Federation president Ednaldo Rodrigues, formerly in the job in an interim nature himself, claimed in July that Ancelotti has already agreed to take over the side for the 2024 Copa America — something Ancelotti himself has refused to comment on. Continuity, a valuable thing in international management, is nowhere to be found.
AdvertisementGetty ImagesMisfiring attack
There is tactical complexity to assembling a winning team. Success is not so easily attained by simply throwing the best attacking talents on the pitch, and asking them to score goals. Still, Brazil's forward options should be the envy of world football.
At full fitness, they can turn to: Neymar, Vinicius Jr, Gabriel Martinelli, Rodrygo, Gabriel Jesus, Raphinha, Richarlison and Antony, plus rising stars Endrick and Vitor Roque. It is telling that Tite selected no less than nine forwards in his 2022 World Cup squad.
Having good players alone is not conducive to scoring a lot of goals, but that group should be able to manage more than eight in five games — regardless of how tricky some of these fixtures can be.
This is not necessarily a chance-creation problem. The Selecao have averaged over 10 shots per game over the course of the middling period. In big games, though, they have disappeared. They only registered two shots — both of which were off target — against Uruguay. Colombia comfortably created more chances than them. Against Venezuela, the Selecao were simply less clinical, and could have few complaints after conceding a late equaliser.
These are ominous stats ahead of an Argentina team that, in general, does not offer their opponents regular goalscoring opportunities.
Defence with an obvious weakness
Things aren't particularly smooth at the other end, either. Brazil's defence is a strange unit, strong through the middle, but alarmingly thin on the outside.
There is a stalwart at centre-back in Marquinhos, and a top-tier Premier League talent in Gabriel Magalhaes alongside him, while Eder Militao will work his way back into contention once he recovers from his serious knee injury. Behind them, Alisson Becker and Ederson – perhaps the world's two best goalkeepers – are vying for the No.1 spot.
But at full-back, the options are grim. Renan Lodi has failed to convince, while none of Emerson Royal, Carlos Augusto, Yan Couto or natural centre-back Bremer have seized their opportunity, either. Piece it all together, and the Selecao are easily exploitable down either side. They have, in fact, conceded the same goal numerous times.
Teams prefer to attack down Brazil's left flank, exploiting the defensive weakness of whomever is deployed in the position. A well-hit ball to the far post — to challenge Marquinhos — accounted for both of Colombia's goals. Two cut-backs from that area set up both of Uruguay's. A cross from a similar position facilitated Venzeuela's late equaliser.
Any smart manager would, of course, assemble a side to target an opponent's weaknesses. France were exploitable down their left at the World Cup. Liverpool, for some time, have been vulnerable down their right side. Arsenal, too, can be hit in the same space behind the left-back. Still, that no Brazil manager, interim or otherwise, has come up with a way to plug that hole is concerning.
Even more concerning is the fact that the Selecao have routinely conceded after taking the lead. They went ahead against Venezuela and Colombia, and also got on the board first in the 4-2 loss to Senegal in June that saw Menezes removed from his job.
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Getty ImagesInjuries haven't helped
There are, of course, mitigating factors here. Brazi have been routinely been hit by injuries across multiple positions. At various points, Neymar, Raphinha, Vinicius, Casemiro, Jesus, Militao, Richarlison and Ederson have been missing due to knocks of differing degrees.
These are players of contrasting importance. As the Selecao showed after Neymar went down with a serious knee injury against Uruguay, this is not a side that exactly thrives without the trickery of their star man. Militao's loss at the back, too, has been felt. His ability to fill in at full-back would certainly make this side a more stable unit. Richarlison, Antony, and others can be worked around.
But the really devastating one might be the winger who will miss Tuesday's game. Vinicius was supposed to be the star to take over from Neymar, and the Real Madrid forward has undoubtedly been among the world's best at club level for two years now — consistently finding the net himself and setting up team-mates for goals. But his Brazil statistics — three goals in 26 caps — have been horrific in comparison.
With Neymar out, this was his chance to amend things. But after picking up a hamstring injury against Colombia that will rule him out until early 2024, Brazil will be forced to look elsewhere for their attacking inspiration.